NAMEM released the Dzud risk map on 2 December 2022, which indicates that 16 per cent of the Mongolian territory is at the highest level of risk, 43 per cent is at high level of risk of Dzud, 33 per cent is at moderate risk, 10 per cent is at low and the least level of risk.

Photo: Snow is removed from the road in Zavkhan province by a joint MRCS and NEMA team. (Photo: MRCS).

The most soums with high-level risks are located in Bayan-Ulgii, Uvs, Zavkhan, Bayankhongor, Govi-Altia, Uvurkhangai, Bayankhongor, a few soums in Dornogovi, Sukhbaatar and Dundgovi are also identified to be a very high level of risk. According to NAMEM, Dzud index has a high correlation to livestock mortality (1940 - 2015 plot of Dzud index, drought index and livestock, NAMEM), also, the vegetation index plays a major role in the shaping of winter (Trigger update variation, 501). The high temperature and low precipitation caused severe drought in the summer, which is the reason why the livestock couldn't accumulate enough fat to overcome the winter, and the meteorology office stated anomalous low temperatures in late December. As mentioned before due to the drought and economic inflation, meat price has been significantly reduced, therefore decreasing the income of herders. Combined with the severe winter, the herder households are at risk to fail to meet the immediate basic needs.

Considering the historical data, peak of livestock mortality is from February to April and the January is the coldest month where the livestock is exposed and became malnourished, the livestock perishes in mass numbers due to the direct cold exposure or malnutrition. The herder households solemnly rely on their livestock for the food and income, losing the livestock would cause the herder households the loss of livelihoods and food insecurity, enormous psychological stress.

According to vulnerability analysis, the population most exposed to the Dzud are the herder population who have up to 400 livestock as the herders who have more than 400 livestock been considered to have more availability to recover from Dzud damage as there’s more chance, they will have animals left after the Dzud. There are about 51,000 herders (National Statistics office) in those 5 provinces meanwhile 37,000 herders who own 100-500 livestock who are identified to be more vulnerable to the cold wave. Govi-Altai, Arkhangai and Uvurkhangai provinces were assessed to be at moderate risk level. (IFRC, 8 Dec 2022)