Due to the persisting drought in the Grand Sud and after-effects of the cyclones in the Grand Sud-Est, more than 2 million people are expected to face high levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) during the lean season (November 2022 - March 2023) according to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis published on 4 January 2023. This figure includes 252,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

Overall, food insecurity is expected to deteriorate, with 19 out of 21 analysed districts being in IPC Phase 3 during the lean season. The most affected districts remain Ikongo and Bekily (Grand Sud), with 15% of their population in IPC Phase 3 (Emergency), followed by Befotaka and Ampanihy. 

A slow recovery is expected in the cyclone-affected areas in the Grand Sud-Est due to low levels of food assistance and livelihood restoration, while favourable weather conditions in the Grand Sud could bring an improvement in projected food security in the April – July 2023 period.