The Mongolian Red Cross Society (MRCS) has activated its Early Action Protocol for Dzud on 18 December 2020 based on the dzud trigger. The EAP is activated if three or more provinces have a very high risk of 20 per cent or more of their land area being affected. The dzud risk map is developed by the National Agency for Meteorology and Environmental Monitoring (NAMEM). The dzud risk map of 10 December 2020 shows that more than 60 per cent of the country identified with dzud risk (16.5 per cent very high risk, 50.4 per cent high risk) and 18.5 per cent of the country are in medium risk. Five provinces had more than 20 per cent of very high-risk coverage in their territory, as calculated by Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC). Out of that in most areas of Uvurkhangai Bayankhongor, Dundgovi, Umnugovi, Govi-Altai provinces are expected to experience extreme winter continued with deteriorating spring. (IFRC, 18 Dec 2020)

[NAMEM] has warned that more than 60 per cent of the country is at risk of an extreme winter, with temperatures forecast to plummet to extreme lows of -50C for days on end. These extreme winters – known as dzud – threaten the health and livelihoods of thousands of Mongolian herders living in the country’s remote central and southern provinces. Dzud is caused by the double impact of drought in the summer followed by harsh winter conditions. Without summer rain, grass does not grow and millions of farm animals cannot put on enough weight to survive the winter and farmers are unable to grow sufficient hay. (IFRC, 12 Jan 2020)