An MSF staff member tests a woman for COVID-19 during mobile clinic activities in Fortaleza. Brazil, June 2021. © MARIANA ABDALLA/MSF

As the weather gets colder in Brazil and the pandemic rolls on, the COVID-19 situation in the country has again become deeply concerning, with national and international experts warning of a third devastating wave.

The response remains fragmented and decentralised while the central authorities continue to disregard science, including the importance of masks and physical distancing, in their health messaging.

Sadly, Brazilians now account for over 500,000 COVID-19 deaths and the average COVID-19 fatality rate has crept above 2,000 people a day for the first time since May. Likewise, the number of new cases has also risen to more than 70,000 a day. This is the highest average since the peak of cases during the second wave in early May.

“In Brazil’s case, it is hard to say if we are starting a new wave because the truth is that there has never been a substantial drop in cases since the beginning of the pandemic,” says Antonio Flores, MSF infectious disease specialist.

He explains that what we have seen so far are cycles. After a peak, there is a moderate fall and then a stabilisation at a high plateau, before cases unfortunately start rising again.

“Throughout the pandemic Brazil has been in almost continuous danger of having an acceleration of cases and deaths,” says Flores.

The arrival of winter in Brazil now brings further complications. Usually, the cooler weather brings with it a rise in cases of the common flu and other respiratory diseases. As people become infected with these illnesses, a health system that is already under pressure due to COVID-19 will be further strained.

As the virus continues to spread, our teams across the country are finding new ways to help the most vulnerable communities in the most disadvantaged areas of Brazil, such as the remote north and northeast of the country, where access to health services is more difficult.